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January 1, 1989, Sunday, Home Edition

Book Review; Page 1; Book Review Desk

1206 words

NEW FALLOUT FROM CHERNOBYL;

THE SOCIAL IMPACT OF THE CHERNOBYL DISASTER BY DAVID R. MARPLES (ST. MARTIN'S PRESS: $35, CLOTH; $14.95, PAPER; 316 PP., ILLUSTRATED; 0-312-02432-0)

By James E. Oberg , Oberg, a space engineer in Houston, is the author of Uncovering Soviet Disasters: Exploring the Limits of Glasnost (Random House).

The onset of the new Gorbachev policy of glasnost, commonly mistranslated as openness but closer in connotation to candor or publicizing, has complicated the task of Soviet secret-keepers and has allowed substantial new Western insights into Soviet society. David R. Marples' new book, his second on the Chernobyl accident of April 26, 1986, is a shining example of the best type of non-Soviet analysis into topics that only recently were absolutely taboo in Moscow official circles.

The author, a British-educated historian and economist, is a research associate with the Canadian Institute of Ukrainian Studies at the University of Alberta, and the academic style of the book is undisguised. However, its intended audience is the general public, and anyone interested in nuclear power, or Soviet economy and society, or human drama, or just plain sleuthing state secrets, will find hitherto unpublished revelations and explanations of the event and its continuing aftermath.

The effects of Chernobyl reverberated throughout so many facets of Soviet society that a continuous coherent narrative is probably impossible. Marples discusses half a dozen major themes arranged in a fairly arbitrary order (as indicated by the frequent and helpful cross references throughout the text) and succeeds in mapping out his main themes. The personal interests of each reader determine which of the sections may be deemed too detailed and which too sketchy, but considering the need for such a comprehensive overview, the levels are generally appropriate.

The book is, on the one hand, not a light read, and an executive summary might have been possible in a quarter the length. But, on the other, so many of the judgments depend on a subtle interpretation of a multitude of sources that the author is obligated to present the raw data for the reader's inspection. The modular nature of the book also allows a reader to skip, browse, and revisit earlier sections, aided by a convenient internal organization and a thorough index.

First in the world's attention, and in the text, is a discussion of the human victims of the accident. The official tally is 31 (only about 20 names have ever been released), but Marples suspects there were other short-term radiation victims. A large number of unnecessary late-term abortions were also performed on local women, and by rights those unborn babies count as casualties. Widespread "radiophobia" led to restricted diets which created malnourishment and subsequent disease in thousands of people. The tens of thousands of people taking part in cleanup operations were never included in official totals of those exposed. Since the book went to press, Soviet military sources have referred to at least one death in the actual reactor entombment program.

But the greatest toll is likely to occur with the delayed deaths. Here, Marples encounters for the first time the soon familiar theme of official Soviet myth-making around the event: Reality is twisted to serve state policy objectives, which include calming an alarmed public with assurances that all is well when it isn't.

And thus is born what he properly labels the "myth of Chernobyl," the official line that the disaster provided a test that Soviet society passed with honor. "In the Soviet view," he writes, "it was first and foremost a victory, a story with an ending, and an ending that was triumphant."

Thus, when sober Western medical estimates placed the future "excess cancer deaths" at several tens of thousands, both in the Soviet Union and in Europe (a few tenths of a percent elevation of the natural cancer rate), the Soviets reacted furiously. The estimates are branded "nonsense" and the estimators are dismissed as "panic mongers" promulgating "anti-Soviet venom."

Subsequently the author addresses themes of environmental impact, economic and political repercussions, public images, and the recovery operations. Along the way, Marples provides a damning list of examples in which Soviet officials attempted to retreat behind old-style cover-ups and outright lies. False information was issued on radiation levels, on subsequent accidents at the site, on contamination levels of the Kiev water supply, on severe discipline against non-volunteer cleanup personnel, on reactor entombment schedules and on operator training levels.

A severe 1986-1987 countrywide electrical power shortage was officially denied although it was real enough to compel the restart of three Chernobyl reactors in explicit violation of Soviet safety regulations. Design deficiencies of the Chernobyl-style reactors were downplayed and human errors were declared to be the primary culprit.

Ultimately, observes the author, "It is ironic that in an era of openness, Chernobyl may have been both the pioneer of glasnost under Gorbachev and then subsequently its first casualty." He ultimately concludes, "Aspects of the disaster . . . have rarely been dealt with thoroughly or even honestly by Soviet sources." Hence the need for this book, a need which is admirably fulfilled despite the many remaining mysteries and uncertainties.

The July, 1987, trial of reactor personnel marked a full circle of disclosure. Journalists were allowed into the pre-scripted first and last days, but the weeklong deliberative sessions were held in secret and no word of their substance has ever been released.

The propaganda purpose of the trial and surrounding official publicity, he maintains, had one goal: "To divert culpability from the party hierarchy, in Kiev and especially in Moscow." This is precisely the theme I have also encountered in my own investigations of aerospace accidents of the past. Where individual human failings led to catastrophe, a sanitized story may eventually be released, but where Kremlin policy led to disaster (such as the Nedelin catastrophe of 1960 or the Soyuz-1 disaster in 1967), the entire event remains absolutely off limits to glasnost.

The closing blow-by-blow description of the nuclear power debate presages a dramatic event which occurred too recently for inclusion in this first edition. Viktor Legasov, tagged by the author as one of the country's two leading pro-nuclear advocates, actually was sinking into private despair over the poor implementation of safety standards. In the end, he made his final and most eloquent testimony to this despair on the second anniversary of the accident, by committing suicide. For several weeks the Soviets tried to sit on the circumstances of his "tragic death," even issuing official non-explanations which asserted that the death was not due to medical effects of radiation. Finally, crusading journalist Vladimir Gubarev, with access to Legasov's notebooks, broke the story in Pravda. Readers of this book will come to know these and other characters so well that the suicide fits right into the "big picture" of the catastrophe's social impacts.

For an author to so accurately describe a social milieu that subsequent unpredictable events only enhance his insights is testimony to the highest quality of scholarship. Readers of Marples' book will rarely be surprised as the Chernobyl catastrophe's consequences continue to unfold in the future.

Photo, Chernobyl Then and Now :Photographs of the damaged reactor taken before the construction of its concrete "sarcophagus" are, for obvious reasons, aerial photographs. Left, an artist's reconstruction of the reactor as it would have looked from the ground before the sarcophagus was in place. The point of view is the same as that of an official Soviet photograph, right, taken as the entombment neared completion.

Book Review; Main Story

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January 1, 1989, Sunday, Home Edition

Book Review; Page 10; Book Review Desk

146 words

CURRENT PAPERBACKS: WAITING FOR CHILDHOOD BY SUMNER LOCKE ELLIOTT (PERENNIAL LIBRARY/ HARPER & ROW: $7.95)

By ELENA BRUNET

Set in Australia at the turn of the 20th Century, "Waiting for Childhood" is the story of seven children left to cope for themselves after their parents die. Their father, The Rev. William Lord, expires at the breakfast table one morning. After the family leaves for a ramshackle house owned by a wealthy cousin, the mother loses her mind and then her life in an accident.

The eldest daughter, Lily, takes charge of the entire household, as Jess becomes a favorite of her rich cousin Jackie and watches her rival for Jackie's affections fall fatally from a mountaintop.

These characters, "all talented, all deeply human, (are) all so beautifully realized that by the end of the novel we identify with them to the point of heartbreak," Carolyn See wrote in these pages. " 'Waiting for Childhood' manages to be at once terribly melancholy and extraordinarily exhilarating."

Column; Book Review

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January 1, 1989, Sunday, Home Edition

Business; Part 4; Page 3; Column 1; Financial Desk

1299 words

VIEWPOINTS;

'89 WISH LIST: PROTECTION, TAXES AND PEACE;

SOCIAL BENEFITS, DEFICIT REDUCTION ARE TOP PRIORITIES FOR THE NEW YEAR

What changes would you like to see in business practices and the workplace this year? How can business leaders and economic policy-makers improve the economy and the world in general in 1989? The Times ran these questions by people in various walks of life, and here are some of their answers:

Muriel Siebert, head of the Muriel Siebert & Co. discount brokerage in New York, and first female member of the New York Stock Exchange:

"I would like to see certain business practices regulated. I think that the leveraged buyouts show the greed of people at their worst. . . . The LBOs are bypassing the purpose of the capital-raising system. I think that to the extent that people were stockholders in these companies . . . they should be allowed to continue to have some kind of share in the profits (after the leveraged buyouts) because these moves were done while they were stockholders.

"Must greed be the creed? I would like to see that also rolled over to our defense contractors. I am pro defense. I believe in a strong country because people mistake gentility for weakness. If (contractors) cheat on defense contracts, I don't see why they don't go to jail. . . . I just feel that if you are a major defense contractor, you owe a fiduciary responsibility to this country because defense expenditures are putting a pretty big toll on the country."

Andrew Brimmer, former member of the Federal Reserve Board and head of a Washington economics consulting firm:

"My leading wish is that the nation deal with the federal budget deficit. I would like to see a substantial reduction in 1989 and extending over the next three years. I would strongly recommend that we raise taxes. There should be some moderation in the level of government expenditures, but the real problem is the lag in revenue.

"I also would like to see more done for education by business. The kind of education I'm talking about is at the elementary and secondary level. Businesses are already contributing to colleges. Businesses should do likewise for elementary and secondary schools. Business people can play a role as counselors and teachers. A firm might make available an engineer or mathematician to go into schools and teach. Business should do more to offer on-the-job training for unskilled, or limited-skills, people, perhaps through a (lower) learning wage. We would give business tax credits to do this."

William R. Robertson, executive secretary of the Los Angeles County Federation of Labor, AFL-CIO:

"I would like to see a change in philosophy by the incoming President relating to labor relations and providing for fairness in our (labor) organizing efforts and contract negotiations. . . .

"I would also like to see some protection for workers losing their jobs because of mergers. It is a national disgrace. In too many mergers, the workers are the ones that suffer and the country as well. Something should be done to correct it. . . .

"And, finally, this Administration should face reality in resolving the astronomical deficit."

Steven D. Lydenberg, an associate with the "socially responsible" investment firm of Franklin Research & Development:

"There is an increasing interest around the country in social investing. People want to know not just the financial implications of making a commitment in a company, but also the social implication. That information is not very easy to come by.

"So, if at the end of '89 corporations were disclosing in a uniform way their yield figures, their charitable contribution figures, the numbers of women and minorities in top management and board directors, their attitude on a number of comparable social issues, I would be very happy."

Frank Borman, chairman of Patlex Corp. of Chatsworth, former astronaut and former chairman of Eastern Airlines:

"We should begin to move toward taxing consumption -- a value-added tax. This is quite controversial as Al Ullman (Oregon Democrat and former chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, who was defeated in 1988 after advocating a value-added tax) will tell you. But this taxing system is needed. It would certainly help our exports. Almost all of Europe is under the value-added taxing system. Also, it may encourage saving instead of consumption. One of the ways you discourage consumption is to tax it."

Michael Harrington, co-chair of Democratic Socialists of America and author of "The Other America" and "The New American Poverty":

"I hope Secretary of State Baker will build on the basic insights of former Treasury Secretary Baker (James Baker, former treasury secretary, was nominated by President-elect Bush to be Secretary of State) that a settlement of Third World debt is in the self-interest of America, opening up markets for business and labor. But then the new Baker will have to go far beyond the old, since Latin America now owes more than it did in 1982 when the crisis officially began, and several countries, including Argentina and Brazil, may see democracy subverted if current trends persist.

"At home, the nation must recognize that we can't waste young people, and particularly minorities and women, on illiteracy, unemployment and unproductive low-wage work. We must invest mightily in education, training and job generation."

Alan Bromberg, a securities law expert and professor at Southern Methodist University:

"There are several things I would like most to see changed in the economy and business practices. One, more concentration by business and government, both here and abroad, on . . . the facilitation of international trade and investment. This would require wider horizons for business people . . . and more effort by government to reduce and ultimately eliminate all kinds of restrictions on the movement of products.

"Two, I would like to see a national consensus developed, preferably in the form of federal legislation, on corporate takeovers and buyouts that would recognize the efficiencies and benefits they bring as well as the dislocations and hardships they can cause. This would involve tax policies and labor polices and limitations on the ability of states to Balkanize corporate law by different anti-takeover statutes everywhere. (There also should be) some kind of limitation on management self-entrenchment and self-enrichment.

"I think we could use a lot of clarification of the securities laws. I think the courts have done a good job of saying what insider trading is. The kind of issues that are most difficult are what really is parking (of stock)? How much cooperation or similar action by different individuals or different groups of individuals makes it collaboration? These issues haven't been well resolved. . . .

Peter Bahouth, executive director of Greenpeace in Washington:

"People now view threats to human security less in terms of political threats and more in environmental and economic terms. So for my wish list, I would ask first that we deal with the issue of the greenhouse effect. We better develop some alternative views in mass transportation and cut subsidies to reflect the true cost of fossil fuels in terms of pollution, along with the actual economic cost of development. Then, we could put more money into research and development of wind and solar energy.

"(Also on my wish list is) peace on earth. If we want peace on earth, we have to start looking seriously at the fact that we are making more and more weapons, and in a process which endangers the health of American people. . . . Production plants have been proven to have released into the air and water radioactivity and toxic chemicals."

"Also, it would be nice if we could learn that the rain forest affects all of us. We need to preserve it. And we would like the tuna industry to stop killing dolphins."

Drawing, JILL BANASHEK / for The Times