PhD project: Media effects on electoral volatility

Electoral volatility is increasing in most western democracies, particularly in the Netherlands the last few decades (on average about 22%). Yet, it remains unclear to what extent volatility is affected by evaluations in the media on political leaders and policy positions, before and during campaign periods. This project studies these effects. First, the media coverage on evaluation of political leaders and party policy positions between 2006 and 2012 is studied, using computer assisted content analysis.  Subsequently, the effects of media coverage on electoral volatility are studied, by linking media reports to existing data from the EenVandaag Opinion Panel (almost 100.000 respondents in 103 waves). Thirdly, the mechanisms that explain media effects are studied, using another panel study collected during the 2012 campaign (5 waves). Finally, an experiment is conducted to study under which political conditions (i.e. issue ownership) media reports affect electoral volatility.

Biography

After finishing a Bachelor in Laws, Loes graduated in 2011 in Political Theory and Political Behavior at the University of Amsterdam. Her master thesis studied whether the preferences of the lower educated are underrepresented in Dutch politics, responding to the public debate concerning the Diploma Democracy (Bovens and Wille, 2011). She graduated in 2013 (cum laude) in the Research Master Social Sciences at the University of Amsterdam, where she specialized in comparative politics and quantitative research methods. This master thesis studied under which conditions and to what extent the ideological colour of the government influences policy outcomes. Within her research internship, she also conducted research on the effects of opinion polls on voting behavior.

Loes obtained a research grant from the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO), which allowed her to start working at the University of Amsterdam as PhD candidate since September 2013. The team of supervisors for this project are Wouter van der Brug, Tom van der Meer (both UvA Political Science) and Rens Vliegenthart (UvA Communication Science). Her research interest include electoral volatility, political communication, voting behavior, political leadership and political representation.

• Curriculum Vitae Loes Aaldering

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