Adrift or adroit? On the sources of electoral volatility in the Netherlands, 2006-2010
Programmegroup Challenges to Democratic Representation
This NWO funded research project aims to fill the theoretical and empirical gaps in our knowledge on electoral volatility, employing an extensive panel data set, namely the 1Vandaag Opinion Panel since November 2006, that allows us to open the empirical black box.
Funded in the NWO programme Omstreden Democratie. 2010-2011
The Dutch electorate appears to be adrift. Electoral support for political institutions (political trust) and for political parties (party support) has never been as volatile in post-war history as in the last decade. On the one hand this electoral volatility may reflect emancipated, critical citizens, which supports democratic accountability. On the other hand electoral volatility may reflect capriciousness and increasing intolerance for the political process. In that case volatility undermines the stability of the democratic system.
Yet, surprisingly little is known - both theoretically and empirically - about the origins of electoral volatility. Why do citizens' opinions change so rapidly? Who are most likely to be volatile? To what extent do opinions change? Does electoral volatility reflect a strong democracy with emancipated citizens, or does it undermine the stability of the regime through citizens' capriciousness?
To date, the mentioned panel data cover over 60000 respondents who participated in at least two of more than 50 measurement points since November 2006. This enables us to answer the above-mentioned questions on the individual level sources of electoral volatility.
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dr. T.W.G. van der Meer
t.w.g.vandermeer@uva.nl | T: 0205255304
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prof. dr. W. van der Brug
W.vanderBrug@uva.nl | T: 0205252765
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Ms E.J. van Elsas MSc
e.j.vanelsas@uva.nl | T: 0205254781
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