Quantitative Analysis Techniques for Intelligence Services


Prof.dr. R. Nunez Queija


The course participant will acquire knowledge about a range of quantitative analysis techniques that can be applied in operational intelligence services. Developing understanding of theoretical concepts and application in examples that are motivated from field practice form equivalent parts of the course.


The course focuses on developing quantitative analysis techniques for intelligence services. In operational intelligence, information comes with a large degree of uncertainty. Statistical and probabilistic techniques are instrumental to quantify the level of uncertainty and develop educated estimates of unobservable information.


  1. A primer on probabilistic and statistical concepts and techniques (controlled probabilistic experiments, descriptive and explanatory statistical theory).
  2. Relational analysis methodologies: linkage analysis, Bayesian network analysis, connectivity analysis, causal loop analysis, social network analysis.
  3. Basic game theory and stochastic evolustion systems.

This course has been developed within the military intelligence domain in cooperation with the Dutch Defense Intelligence & Security School (DIVI). The course is also taught in close collaboration with the DIVI: several classes are taught by military instructors.

Registration at

UvA students can enroll from 8 December 2016 onwards using the course code 5512KWAT6Y  in SIS.

Contract students and students from other institutions can enroll through the registration form.

* Contract students that do not participate in the Minor Intelligence Studies, cannot register for the course.


12 weeks, 3 hours weekly


The most up to date timetable can be found here: https://datanose.nl/#course[40158]


See  here for more information on costs.

Min/max participants



Midterm exam, assignment and final exam (all three components weighted equally).

Conditions for admission
Preliminary training necessary
6 ECTS, 16 weeks
Language of instruction
Starts in

Published by  Institute for Interdisciplinary Studies