The New Barbary Wars: Forecasting Maritime Piracy
This article assesses the robustness and forecasting ability of various correlates of maritime piracy.
We examine the robustness of explanatory factors such as state capacity, economic development, geography, population size and trade volumes, and additionally assess the predictive ability of various correlates. Demonstrating the importance of predictive heuristics, empirical findings show that state fragility, while only weakly statistically significant, has the strongest predictive effect on piracy incidence.
Publication details
Daxecker, Ursula E. and Brandon C. Prins. 2015. “The New Barbary Wars: Forecasting Maritime Piracy.” Forthcoming in Foreign Policy Analysis.