Disinformation, extreme weather conditions and societal polarisation identified as top three global risks
Labour shortages, economic downturn and energy shortages deemed greatest risks in the Netherlands
11 January 2024
30% of experts foresee increased likelihood of global disasters in next two years
In a September 2023 survey, 54% of experts expected some instability and a moderate risk of global catastrophes, with an additional 30% foreseeing even more turbulent conditions. According to Professor Volberda, ‘the outlook is significantly more negative for the 10-year period, with almost two-thirds of respondents expecting a turbulent or stormy outlook.’
AI-generated disinformation identified as most significant global risk
Experts highlighted AI-generated disinformation as the primary global short-term risk for the coming two years. They predicted that both foreign and domestic actors will exploit disinformation to widen societal and political divides. With nearly three billion people in major economies like Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, the UK and the US heading to the polls in the next two years, the widespread use of disinformation could undermine the credibility of newly elected governments. This can, in turn, lead to unrest, ranging from violent protests and hate crimes to civil confrontations and terrorism.
Extreme weather conditions
Two-thirds of global experts expressed concerns about extreme weather conditions in 2024. However, there was disagreement among experts regarding the urgency of certain environmental risks, such as biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse. Volberda: ‘The business world emphasised these risks as significant long-term concerns, in contrast to respondents from civil society or the government, who prioritised these risks in the short term.’
Top 10 global risks at a glance
Experts were surveyed about the most significant risks for the next two and 10 years:
The Netherlands: labour shortages, economic downturn and energy shortages
In the Netherlands, labour shortages were identified as the most significant risk. According to Volberda, the country occupies a unique position in that it has both the largest global labour shortage and the lowest global unemployment rate. Volberda: ‘While most economies grapple with a notable shortage of qualified labour, they also face higher unemployment rates.’ An economic downturn, energy shortages, lack of social cohesion and cybercrime completed the top five risks.