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Dr. C.A. (Christian) Stoltenberg

Faculty of Economics and Business
Sectie Macro & International Economics
Photographer: FEB

Visiting address
  • Roetersstraat 11
  • Room number: E3.63
Postal address
  • Postbus 15867
    1001 NJ Amsterdam
  • Profile

    Position

    Associate Professor at the University of Amsterdam 
    Research Fellow of the  Tinbergen Institute

    Web: Personal Homepage 

    Research interests

    Macroeconomic and Monetary Theory, Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models

    Research programme

    Macroeconomics and International Economics Research Group 

    Short Biography

    • Research Fellow Tinbergen Institute, 2013-
    • Associate Professor, University of Amsterdam, 2014-
    • Assistant Professor, University of Amsterdam, 2008 -2014
    • Ph.D., Humboldt-University Berlin,
      Supervisor: Harald Uhlig, 2003-2009
    • Visiting Scholar, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, 
      Advisor: Patrick J. Kehoe, 2007-2008 

    Curriculum Vitae 

     

  • Research

    Heterogeneous agents, insurance, and information
     

    • Consumption Insurance with Advance Information (2020), with Swapnil SinghQuantitative Economics, 11 (2), pp. 671-711. Online Appendix.
      Abstract: This paper investigates whether assuming that households possess advance information on their income shocks helps to overcome the difficulty of standard models to understand consumption insurance in the US. As our main result, we find that the quantitative relevance of advance information crucially depends on the structure of insurance markets. For a realistic amount of advance information, a complete markets model with endogenous solvency constraints due to limited commitment explains several key consumption insurance measures better than existing models without advance information. In contrast, when advance information is integrated into a standard incomplete markets model, it affects household consumption-saving decisions too little to bridge the gap between the model and the data and can induce counterfactual correlations between current consumption growth and future income growth.
       
    • Risk Sharing with Private and Public Information (2020), with Piotr DenderskiJournal of Economic Theory, 186 (March), 104988, Online AppendixWP-version.
      Abstract: In this paper, we revisit the conventional view on efficient risk-sharing that advance information on future shocks is detrimental to welfare. In our model, risk-averse agents receive private and public signals on future income realizations and engage in insurance contracts with limited enforceability. Considered separately, better private and public signals are detrimental to welfare. Considered jointly, however, we show that better public information can improve the allocation of risk when private signals are sufficiently precise. More conventionally, more precise public signals spread out the outside option values of high-income agents with high and low public signals, and their willingness to transfer resources to low-income agents decreases.  With informative private signals, however, more informative public signals increase outside option values of agents with a high signal by less than outside options of agents with a low signal decrease, facilitating more transfers. The latter effect dominates the former when private signals are sufficiently precise.
       
    • Existence of Insurance with Private Information and Repeated Interactions (2020), with Piotr Denderski, coming soon.
       
    • Income Expectations and Private Consumption: Facts and Theory (2020), with Arne Uhlendorff, coming soon.
       
    • Efficient Distribution with Private Signals and Limited Commitment (2018), with Piotr Denderski and with Marcelo Zouain Pedroni, in progress.
       
    • Policy Announcements and Welfare (2013), with Vadym LepetyukEconomic Journal123 (September), pp. 962-997. 
      Abstract:  We show that in the presence of idiosyncratic risk, the public revelation of information about risky aggregate outcomes such as policy choices can have a welfare-reducing effect. By announcing information on non-insurable aggregate risk, the policymaker distorts households' incentives for insurance of idiosyncratic risk and increases the riskiness of the optimal self-enforceable allocation. The negative effect of distorted insurance incentives can be quantitatively important for a monetary authority that reveals changes in its short-run inflation target. We characterize parameters for which the effect dominates conventional effects that favour releasing better information.
       
    • Income Inequality, Consumption Inequality and Prospect Theory (2015), with Vadym Lepetyuk.
      Abstract: The rise in within-group consumption inequality in response to the increase in within-group income inequality over the last three decades in the U.S. is puzzling to expected-utility-based incomplete market models. Limited commitment models exhibit too little consumption inequality while standard incomplete markets models tend to predict too much consumption inequality. We show that a model with limited commitment and chance attitudes, as emphasized by prospect theory, improves the fit to the data. Chance attitudes, such as optimism and pessimism, imply that the households attribute a higher weight to high and low outcomes compared to their objective probabilities. For realistic values of risk aversion and of chance attitudes, the incentives for households to share the idiosyncratic risk decrease. The latter effect endogenously amplifies the increase in consumption inequality relative to the expected utility model, thereby improving the fit to the data.

       

    Monetary Policy
     

    • Nested Models and Model Uncertainty (2016), with Alexander KriwoluzkyScandinavian Journal of Economics, 118 (2)pp. 324-353.
      Abstract: Uncertainty about the appropriate choice among nested models is a concern for optimal policy when policy prescriptions from those models differ. The standard procedure is to specify a prior over the parameter space, ignoring the special status of submodels (e.g., those resulting from zero restrictions). Following Sims (2008), we treat nested submodels as probability models, and we formalize a procedure that ensures that submodels are not discarded too easily and do matter for optimal policy. For the United States, we find that optimal policy based on our procedure leads to substantial welfare gains compared to the standard procedure.
       
    • Monetary Policy and the Transaction Role of Money in the United States (2015), with Alexander Kriwoluzky, Economic Journal, 125 (September), pp. 1452-1473.
      Abstract: The declining importance of money in transactions can explain the well-known fact that U.S. interest rate policy was passive in the pre-Volcker period and active after 1982. We generalize a standard cashless New Keynesian model (Woodford, 2003) by incorporating an explicit transaction role for money. In the pre-Volcker period, we estimate that money did play an important role, and determinacy required a passive interest rate policy. However, after 1982, money no longer played an important role in facilitating transactions. Correspondingly, the conventional view prevails and an active policy ensured equilibrium determinacy.
       
    • Real Balance Effects, Timing and Equilibrium Determination (2012), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking44 (5), pp. 981-994.
      Abstract: By assuming that money balances at the beginning instead of at the end of the period provide transaction services, standard results on nominal and real determinacy in monetary models are overturned. Key is that predetermined real money balances can be a state variable. Whereas typically the determination of the absolute price level depends on fiscal policy under an exogenous interest setting, nominal determinacy is now achieved even when fiscal policy is Ricardian. Also, in contrast to the Taylor-principle, interest rate policy should respond passively to changes in inflation to ensure unique, non-oscillatory and locally stable equilibrium sequences.
       
    • Optimal Interest-Rate Stabilization in a Basic Sticky-Price Model (2008), with Matthias PaustianJournal of Economic Dynamics and Control32 (10), pp. 3166-3191.
      Abstract:  This paper studies optimal monetary policy with the nominal interest rate as the single policy instrument. Firms set prices in a staggered way without indexation and real money balances contribute separately to households’ utility. The optimal deterministic steady state under commitment is the Friedman rule—even if the importance assigned to the utility of money is small relative to consumption and leisure. We approximate the model around the optimal steady state as the long-run policy target. The optimal monetary policy is characterized by stabilization of the nominal interest rate instead of inflation stabilization as the predominant principle.
  • Teaching

    Teaching activities

     

    • Macroeconomics  II (Ph.D.)
    • Topics in Advanced Macroeconomics (Ph.D.)
    • Monetary Theory (Master)
    • International Trade and Investment  (Bachelor)

     

  • Other activities

    Tinbergen Macro Seminar Series (TIMSS)

    I'm organizing the Tinbergen Macro Seminar Series. 

  • Publications

    2020

    2016

    2015

    2013

    2012

    2008

    Others

    • Stoltenberg, C. (examiner) (18-11-2019). Commitee member PhD defense Gavin Goy (opponent) (examination).
    • Stoltenberg, C. (examiner) (19-12-2018). Committee member PhD defense Gabriele Ciminelli (opponent) (examination).
    • Stoltenberg, C. (examiner) (20-9-2018). Committee member PhD defense Nicoleta Ciurila (opponent) (examination).
    • Stoltenberg, C. (examiner) (26-10-2017). Committee member PhD defense Gregor Boehl (opponent) (examination).

    2018

    • Jakucionyte, E. (2018). The macroeconomic consequences of carry trade gone wrong and borrower protection. [details]

    2017

    • Singh, S. (2017). Three essays on the insurance of income risk and monetary policy. [details]

    2018

    • Singh, S., & Stoltenberg, C. A. (2018). How Much Do Households Really Know about Their Future Income? (Working Paper Series; No. 55/2018). Vilinius: Lietuvos Bankas. [details]

    2017

    • Denderski, P., & Stoltenberg, C. A. (2017). Risk Sharing With Private and Public Information. Leicester: Department of Economics, University of Leicester. [details]
    • Singh, S., & Stoltenberg, C. A. (2017). Accounting for Households' Perceived Income Uncertainty in Consumption Risk Sharing. Amsterdam: MInt, Department of Economics, University of Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute. [details]

    2014

    • Kriwoluzky, A., & Stoltenberg, C. (2014). Monetary policy and the transaction role of money in the United States. Amsterdam / Bonn: University of Amsterdam / University of Bonn. [details]

    2013

    • Kriwoluzky, A., & Stoltenberg, C. A. (2013). Nested models and model uncertainty. Amsterdam: University of Amsterdam. [details]
    • Lepetyuk, V., & Stoltenberg, C. A. (2013). Reconciling consumption inequality with income inequality. (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Working Paper; No. 705). Minneapolis (USA): Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [details]

    2012

    • Kriwoluzky, A., & Stoltenberg, C. A. (2012). Monetary policy and the transaction role of money in the United States. Amsterdam: University of Amsterdam. [details]
    • Lepetyuk, V., & Stoltenberg, C. A. (2012). Reconciling consumption inequality with income inequality. Amsterdam: University of Amsterdam. [details]

    2011

    • Kriwoluzky, A., & Stoltenberg, C. A. (2011). Monetary policy and the transaction role of money in the United States. Universiteit van Amsterdam.
    • Lepetyuk, V., & Stoltenberg, C. A. (2011). Reconciling consumption inequality with income inequality. Universiteit van Amsterdam.

    2010

    • Kriwoluzky, A., & Stoltenberg, C. A. (2010). Money and Reality. Universiteit van Amsterdam.
    • Kriwoluzky, A., & Stoltenberg, C. A. (2010). Nested Models and Model Uncertainty. Universiteit van Amsterdam.
    • Lepetyuk, V., & Stoltenberg, C. A. (2010). Policy Announcements and Welfare. Universiteit van Amsterdam.

    2009

    2008

    • Kriwoluzky, A., & Stoltenberg, C. A. (2008). Optimal policy under model uncertainty: A structural-Bayesian estimation approach. onbekend: Afdeling Algemene Economie. [details]
    • Stoltenberg, C. (2008). Real balance effects, timing and equilibrium determination. onbekend: Afdeling Algemene Economie. [details]
    This list of publications is extracted from the UvA-Current Research Information System. Questions? Ask the library or the Pure staff of your faculty / institute. Log in to Pure to edit your publications. Log in to Personal Page Publication Selection tool to manage the visibility of your publications on this list.
  • Ancillary activities
    No known ancillary activities